A Grumpy Old Man’s Tale 19 Recent Events.

It was Saturday the 21st of December 2019 at the Green Dragon Bearthwaite. The pub like everywhere else was tricked out in decorations and ready for Christmas. The grumpy old men, glad to have escaped their forced involvement in the seasonal festive activities at their homes, had settled down anticipating a pleasant evening of yarns and drinking. But an unusually serious looking Sasha started by saying, “The signs are always there for those who actually see what’s there rather than what they want to see. My great great uncle Gregor was a metallurgist, but more than that he looked at the evidence and events in his day to day life too. He had a gift of seeing where we were, what folk were doing and where it would take the world. The world mind, not just his corner of it. He made predictions, and those that haven’t come to pass yet I’m confident will. When I was a child he told me of the modern state of ICT. Of course he had no idea how it would function, but he predicted almost instant communication and data transfer and handling on a scale that got him laught at at the time. Crazy Gregor, he’s off again with his fantasies they’d say, but here we are. Eventually he just kept his mouth shut, but he made a hell of a lot of money by acting on his predictions in the world’s stock markets, which would have resulted in a firing squad if the authorities had found out about it.

“Gregor used to talk to me. How he knew I’d keep my mouth shut I don’t know to this day, but he never told me I had to. When I was boy, six, certainly no more than seven, he’d made what I regard as his most significant prediction. In those days Lake Baikal was safe to drink and held a fifth of the world’s unfrozen fresh water. It was and may still be the largest lake in the world, but there are warnings against drinking it, for it is largely toxic today. Too, the Ural Sea was huge and a major source of fish. It was the fourth largest saline sea on the planet. Now it has mostly disappeared due to taking the rivers that fed it for irrigation purposes. There are big ships high and dry on land miles from the old shore lines. Gregor told me the day was coming when wars would be fought for potable water. Potable was the word he used. I remember because I’d never heard it before. Those wars have been going on for decades in various parts of the world, and the Colorado in the States has been running at ever decreasing levels for years. Potable means safe to drink, Alf.”

“He spoke to you in English? Sasha.”

“Always, Alf. It was safer because there were few where we lived who if they overheard him would understand. He taught me to speak English, and read and write in English too, and folk just thought our conversations were lessons. I suppose in many ways they were some of the most important lessons of my life.”

“Where’s all this going, Sasha? This isn’t just a tale of your childhood is it?”

“No it’s not, Stan. I learnt from my uncle to read events too. That bloody Chinese virus will be over here soon, and God alone knows how the government will deal with it. My guess is they’ll prevaricate, bugger about doing nothing that is, before they issue a restriction of movement order on the general public. The stock markets will crash and food will be difficult to get hold of, so I suggest you start buying enough food to last you at least twelve months. Household stuff too, soap, loo roll, matches, toothpaste, the works. Get some vermin proof containers, enough for a hundred weight of flour at least and dried yeast too for bread, and the same in dried beans or peas. Make sure your wife’s cupboards are fully stocked and your freezers are full. It’s not going to be funny, and you want to be fully stocked before the idiots strip the shelves in every shop and supermarket in the country. Phil says as long as he has grain he’ll keep the mill operating and keep enough flour back to ensure locals never run short. I’ve ordered an eighteen wheeler load of propane in 47kg [103 pound] bottles. We can store them in the boatshed. I’ve also ordered a a fifty thousand litre [13766 US gal] tanker of heating oil and we can park the tanker up on the spare ground outside Alf’s workshop. I suggest we build a barn over it. Alf knows how to get the oil out, but we need to make sure a good number of others do too, preferably some a good bit younger than us.”

Harry said, “Back when I was driving waggons I did six months driving for Allan Stobart Fuels and Lubricants. I packed it in after the first winter because it scared the crap out me driving something with so high a centre of gravity with fuel sloshing about on icy unsalted rural Cumbrian roads. I’ll train some lads up for us.”

“Good lad, Harry,” was said by a number of folk.

“How much rent is the tanker going to set you back, Sasha?” Asked Dennis.

“It isn’t. I bought it.”

“Christ above, you reckon it’s going to be that bad, Sasha?”

“No, Denis. It’ll be a sight worse. I’m looking to buy bulk red diesel [illegal to be used on the road because the tax is much less] and petrol too. Other than food I suggest you start spending bugger all and you forget about any further Christmas expenditure. Make sure you can cope with extended power cuts, worse than the usual at this time of year. I know you’ll all have fuel wood to see you till next back end ready dried for the cold, but get enough candles, generator fuel, coal, and gas cylinders laid in for a twelve month too, you know the score. John, George you need to order a load of spares in for your chainsaws, enough to last a twelve month. Now, before any one objects, I’m buying a load of computers with Skype or Zoom so we can all meet as usual, but over the internet. I’ll make sure everyone can use them next week and those of us that are computer literate can set the systems up in your homes and shew you how to use them. I’ll write up a set of instructions and I suggest we all buy a couple of bags of potatoes from Alf. Your best protection at the moment is avoid meeting people, so once we get the communication system stuff sorted I suggest we use it and avoid not just outsiders, but everyone we can, including each other till we can see our way a bit more clearly. Hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst.

“Dave has already agreed to start sourcing as much vegetables, eggs and milk locally, and he's ordered an eighteen wheeler load of toilet paper. If any one can provide some storage space he'd be much obliged. Alf you need to convince your mates on the allotment to start supplying him and we all need to convince our wives and everybody else to buy the supplies from Dave. We’ve been self reliant here for centuries not decades, but we need to increase our self reliance and decrease our dependence on outside supplies.

“You’ve known Sasha longer than anyone else, Denis. You reckon all this is for real?”

“I reckon we’d be idiots not to do what he says, Bill. If we don’t and he’s right, we’re stuffed. If we do and he’s wrong, we’ve just got a lot of food in the house. Sasha’s lived where food and other necessities were almost impossible to get a hold of, so I’m going to be doing what he says. I’ve listened to some of his so called crazy predictions before, and as far as I’m aware they all came to happen.”

Phil said, “I’ve already noticed a significant increase in the number of enquiries from firms that wouldn’t usually bother with a small mill like ours. Bastards seem to think they’d be doing us a favour by paying peanuts for a contract giving them our total out put for anything up to three years. So Sasha isn’t the only one thinking that way. However we’ll be fine for flour. I’ve bought all the grain of every description from all our local farms this year. Those new silos enabled me to store it. I haven’t paid for it all yet, so I’d appreciate a bit of support. If all the locals buy their flour from me or from Dave who gets it from me I’ll agree not sell any to outside bakeries. That’ll keep us okay for bread for years.” Phil shrugged indicating solidarity with the folk who lived in the area his ancestors had milled for for centuries. “I was already working on a new pair of stones, so I guess we’ll be okay there for a goodly time, and I've got two pairs of blanks I can form when ever it suits.

“How did you deal with the enquiries, Phil?”

Phil laught, a short, dry, brutal laugh, “I didn’t. I let Alice deal with them.” That caused significant laughter, for Alice who was a miller too also managed the business and was well known to have no time for the large concerns that had been trying to put the mill out of business since before she and Phil had been born.

“How long will it be you reckon before things get back to normal, Sasha?”

“Never, Pete, if by normal you mean like they are now. We’ll eventually get back to a normal, but it will be a completely different normality. Life will have changed. During the first world war a major social change took place that led to votes for women. It would have happened anyway because it was long overdue, but the war triggered it. Another major social change occurred during the second world war when women worked in factories doing work that previously had only been available to men. They knew they could operate machine tools, drive heavy vehicles and perform other tasks as well as men and were not prepared to go back to being the stay at home little wifey who managed home and children and did as she was told. Again the change was overdue and the war was just a trigger.

“When the war against this virus is over, and that’s what it will be, a war, who knows what changes will come in its wake. No one is admitting it yet and they’re all talking about containing it, but it’s too damned late. The incubation period is too long to contain it. By now there will be folk all over the world with it who don’t know yet. Too, it seems there are some folk with it who don’t get ill with it, so they’ll probably never know they’ve had it and passed it on to God know how many, dozens, scores, hundreds, maybe thousands even. It’ll be out of control now, and it’s being assisted to spread by the idiot politicians who only ever listen to scientists and other experts when it suits their political ambitions. I know I’ve got an axe to grind, but politicians are all educated in subjects I regard as complete bollocks which renders them unfit to govern the moment an understanding of reality is required.

“Of course no one educated in the stuff that makes the world go round would dream of going into politics. The only exceptions I know of are medics who went into politics, maybe their potential patients should be grateful. Politics, marketing, economics, psychology, sociology, philosophy, law, are examples of bollocks subjects, but there are dozens more. Politicians are basically innumerate and know bugger all that STEM(1) encompasses. Every STEM graduate knows a hell of a lot more of the bullshit subjects than the bullshitters do about STEM. I heard a minister of education say a few years ago that the government’s target was that eighty percent of all children should be above average.(2) It’s not hard, Alf. The average means the middle, so exactly fifty percent are above it all the time and exactly fifty percent are below it all the time. If kids learn more the average moves up to keep it in the middle. Okay?”

“Yeah. I get that. Why didn’t some one tell me that when I was at school?”

“They did, Alf, but as usual you weren’t listening.” Stan’s remark caused a ripple of laughter before Sasha resumed.

“What’s stem, Sasha?”

“STEM, is a term that takes the initials of science, technology, engineering and mathematics and is used for the stuff that’s supposed to be hard to learn. You’re involved, Alf. You understand about tolerances and can rebuild gearboxes and the like, and design equipment too. I guess it’s all the stuff that makes things happen.”

Alf nodded and said, “Funny thing you know, Sasha, when I was an apprentice doing day release at tech(3) there was a lecturer who said I was thick cos I couldn’t get my head round AC(4) electrical theory, but the idiot couldn’t repair the alternator on his BMW. I still laugh about that from time to time.”

“I’ve known a lot like that over the years, Alf. But back to the politicians. Natural phenomena are not subject to spin, they do what ever it is they do, and this one kills. So far only those with underlying health issues, or so we’re told, but there will be the young and healthy who are particularly susceptible to it who will die, just as there will be the elderly with all sorts of other health problems who will prove to be immune to it who won’t even feel ill. Anyone who says there will be a safe and tested treatment for it in much less than a year is bullshitting because that’s about how long it takes to develop a treatment for this kind of thing even when unlimited resources are threwn at the problem and the bureaucracy is cut down to nil, and remember Bubonic plague wiped out possibly two hundred million people, probably sixty percent of the Eurasian population at the time. That was called the Black Death.

“As for what will change. Folk will have to do a great deal more over the internet and the telephone, not just shopping. I suspect a large number of face to face interactions that various professional persons, like medical personnel, solicitors, bankers and folk I haven’t considered yet too, have always insisted their physical presence was absolutely vital for will be seen to be perfectly adequately managed over the phone, by Skype, Zoom and similar mechanisms. Having been managed that way for the duration they’ll continue to be so done after the dust has settled. Education will be conducted over the internet a great deal more. They’re having to do so now and the model already exists for distance learning. Many think, and I’m one of them, that the UK Open University is the best under graduate and graduate distance learning environment in the world, and you can get assistance with the fees, work while you study, and don’t get a load of student debt that some will never pay off before they retire. It is portable so if you move or take a couple of years or ten if you’re a woman and want a family, or you just want a year or so off there’s nothing lost.”

“Not saying you’re wrong, Sasha, but it is depressing and I think I’ll have some thing hard to go with my pint. Pull a round, Pete, I’ll get ’em in.(5) You got any of that Mountain Dew(6) left, Pat?”

“That I have. I’ll fetch a couple or maybe four bottles from the cellar.”

“I haven’t the heart for tales the night,” Denis said with a saddened look on his face, “So get the dominoes out as I’ve a feeling this may be our last session for some time.”

1 STEM, collective term for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics.
2 In the UK, unlike in the US, Average does not equate to Mean. It is a collective term for various measures of central tendency. Examples of which include Mean [US Average], Median, and Mode and various other more sophisticated measures. I refer you to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average. There is a rap taught by some teachers of mathematics in the UK, the MMMR rap which is NOT the MMM rap to be found on Youtube. It is used to teach Mean, Mode, Median and Range. Like Average, Range is not used in the UK in the way EXCEL uses it. Strictly Sasha should have used the term Median, but his point is still valid if one considers the concept.
3 Day release at tech, released by his employer when he was an apprentice to go to technical college on designated days to study.
4 AC, alternating current. The most widely used electrical system all over the world. Unlike DC, direct current, where the voltage and current remain steady, an AC supply usually follows a sine wave cyclically going from positive values to negative ones.
5 Get ’em in, pay for them. Indicates paying for a round of drinks.
6 Mountain Dew, poteen. Illicitly distilled Irish spirit.