Trans Athletes by the Numbers

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I have lived in the world of numbers (insurance) for decades.

I have great respect for the law of large numbers. It states that if you repeat an experiment independently a large number of times and average the result, what you obtain should be close to the expected value.

The classic example is a coin flip. If you flip a coin once the probability of heads is 50% and the probability of tails is 50%. You could flip the coin five times and have five heads or five tails. It’s been almost sixty years since I took probabilities in college, but mathematically you could estimate with some degree of confidence that you would have five like flips 3.125% of the time.

If you flip a coin a hundred times you most likely will have a result that is close to fifty heads and fifty tails. Flip the coin a thousand times and your result will be even closer to 50/50 . . . and so on.

Insurance companies make money by assembling homogeneous risks and “predicting” outcomes based largely on empirical data.

Much has been said about the unfairness of transwomen competing in women’s sports.

About 25% of United States citizens compete in sports. Of those about 40% are female. Many sociologists suggest that about 1.5% of those women were born in men’s bodies. We’re talking about a sample size of about 33 million which should produce predictable results.

If transwomen had an “unfair” advantage, the number of transwomen champs would occur much more than 1.5% of the time. That just isn’t happening.

I did a search tonight to try to find out how often transwomen are champs of women’s sports. Even on far-right sites the number of instances cited total under thirty going back all the way to Renee Richards --decades ago.

The “unfairness” of transwomen competing in women’s sports is demagoguery that isn’t remotely backed up by the numbers.

For every who is a champ, many, many transwomen aren’t winning anything.

The actual numbers suggest that the average transwoman isn’t as successful in women’s sports as the average cisgender woman.

Numbers, unlike politicians, don’t lie.

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