Scientists have suggested that herd immunity might not be a feasible goal for the United States. They state the main factor stopping herd immunity is vaccine reluctance.
I have "death reluctance."
What doesn't the government hold a $100,000,000 lottery for all those who have been fully vaccinated as of July 1?
Given a shot at $100M might prompt the damn fools to roll up their sleeves.
Why should those of us who have done the right thing suffer under the distinct peril of this virus mutating, when we have the chance to eradicate it.
Jill
Comments
80%
I just read that they were concluding that herd immunity required 80% vaccinated. Earlier, I had heard numbers in the 70s percent.
I was under the impression that herd immunity required at least 95% vaccinated with close to 100% effectiveness of the vaccine.
When vaccines were still severely rationed, Duncan Black (eschatonblog.com) argued that we shouldn't worry about vaccine reluctance. That meant more for the rest of us. Of course, that would eventually change.
-- Daphne Xu
Covid is More Contagious
The 70% numbers were thrown around before the variants which are much more contagious and when less was known about the virus.
Doctors originally thought the virus would provide immunity to those who contracted it. That immunity has now been seen to start fading quickly at six months.
Jill
Angela Rasch (Jill M I)
Umm... No, that's not what
Umm... No, that's not what the various studies I've been reading say. One study in November showed a strong immune response after 8 months, another was at one year, and still had an antibody response. What most of them are saying is that the antibody 'memory' should last _at least_ six months. Keep in mind that Moderna, for example, was only approved December 18th. They only have three months of large scale data at this point. (Antibody development takes 28 to 56 days). We won't know until the end of the year, at best, how well the vaccinations are holding up.
Here's a study on it.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.27.21256207v1
The summary is "SARS-CoV-2 antibodies remain detectable 12 months after infection and antibody magnitude is associated with age and COVID-19 severity"
However, in the conclusion, they support vaccination, including in people who have already recovered from a natural infection.
I'll get a life when it's proven and substantiated to be better than what I'm currently experiencing.
Let them drink bleach
My neighbor Jimmy Joe Bob-Bob told me the other day he refused
to wear a Covid mask because he saw this YouTube video
claiming that wearing a face mask can cause cancer.
He also complained that they make it hard to smoke.
There will always be those who would rather believe
rumors, speculation and inane made-up anecdotal bullshit
than published science and statistics. So while we're at it, how about an
additional $100,000,000 lottery for everyone who gets theirself voluntarily sterilized?
~hugs, Laika
Born & raised insufferable West Coast elitist
Well shit, I guess it really CAN happen here..,
.
Gee?
I wonder if my urologist will give me an orchiectomy on retainer with the proviso that I'll pay him 10 times the amount if I win that sterilization lottery?
My brother's daughter is a nurse at the practice. Imagine the conversation I might have after that procedure?
Love, Andrea Lena
Doctors
Point out that during surgery everyone wears a mask and if they cause cancer why aren’t health care professionals being killed by cancer in record numbers.
hugs :)
Michelle SidheElf Amaianna
One objection
I've got one objection in PM so far to this blog being on BigCloset. The person expressed their opinion that a TG website was not the right place for a blog supporting and urging vaccination against COVID-19.
For the moment, I'm leaving it up, in large part because I agree with Angela that we need to stop this disease before it mutates and becomes a bigger threat. Also, the original PM commenter withdrew their personal objection.
Getting vaccinated is a personal choice but it has implications for one's community, society and world.
Hugs,
Erin
= Give everyone the benefit of the doubt because certainty is a fragile thing that can be shattered by one overlooked fact.
A Story
As one who got deleted once, that simply means I put it in a story -- and slam all the harder.
-- Daphne Xu
Personal choice
I don’t think it’s really a personal choice wearing a mask and not getting vaccinated increases the variants that pop up and put everyone else a risk. Especially when they get regular approval in a couple weeks. Just like you can’t shout fire in a theatre you shouldn’t be allowed to put the health of everyone else at risk.
hugs :)
Michelle SidheElf Amaianna
The Blog Very Much Related to BC
It's my (unproven) theory that when people die from covid they no longer can either write or read.
Existential threats are everyone's business.
Maybe I was living under a rock, but I simply don't recall this kind of reluctance for the polio vaccine in the 1950s. I do recall being extremely scared by the idea of polio and happy to have the vaccine. They had to hold down my sister to give her the shot...that's reluctance. She later developed diabetes at the age of 19 and had to administer shots to herself every day.
Polio was wiped out in less than a decade through an aggressive vaccination program.
Jill
Angela Rasch (Jill M I)
Wiping out Polio
happened because at the time, the voices of those who were anti-vax (very, very small) didn't have a platform to shout from.
Then we got all the anti-vax propaganda from the likes of Andrew Wakefield (wrt autism) and then along came social media.
Mix them all together and you get what we have today. Chaos.
If Polio was still a problem today, any attempt to eradicate it would fail for exactly the same reasons as the Covid Vaccinations won't get to 'herd immunity' levels.
[joke alert]
Now I have to stop because the Bill Gates chip that I recieved with my vaccine is telling me to otherwise it will trigger nasty things to happen to me (sic)
See how silly those theories are? Yet we see them peddled almost daily on certain cable channels.
Samantha
Unfortunately, I've heard
Unfortunately, I've heard otherwise intelligent people claiming that 'herd immunity' is only 60%. They also don't get vaccinated because the think we should let our immune systems get stronger by catching things. The disconnect in not understanding that vaccinations aren't in the same category as antibiotics seems to be insurmountable.
Possibly it's happening because 'majority' is the word used most often for herd immunity, so they think 'over 50%', where in reality, it varies depending on the population density. In New York City, it might need to be 97%. In East BumWad, Texas, it might only need to be the 30% that actually work in business that see outside traffic. In most places, it's probably 80-85%.
The real killer in this is that it's messed up by the statistics (from early on, no less, by a Nobel prize winning biochemist) that appear to show that of any particular strain (just like the flu) only 20% are vulnerable to it (to the point of showing symptoms/infectious, anyway). The problem is that the more strains there are out there, the more likely you are to catch one of them. That's why you get people that say that the flu shots don't work. They _do_, but only for the strains they determine are the most likely to hit the US.
Marginal populations, no matter what the ethnic group, are most at risk. LGBTQ (I HATE that phrase, really. We're all humans. We just have different outlooks and problems) are often under high stress. That lowers immune system response. 20% of the US is still 60 millions people. Of that 60 million, if 1% is at risk of hospitalization and death, that's 600,000. That's the population of a good sized city, with the likelihood of death. So far, we're already at 33 million confirmed cases, and 590,000 deaths. (Let's keep in mind that there are a lot of unconfirmed cases, and at least some of the deaths may be misreported. It's still a big number)
So, _this_ group is at a higher risk of a compromised immune system. It's worth discussing, and it's worth pushing HARD for at least the people reading these blogs to go out and get the shots. Just keep in mind they aren't a magic bullet. Their biggest value is keeping you out of the hospital.
BW
I'll get a life when it's proven and substantiated to be better than what I'm currently experiencing.
Pick-A-Doc
Covid has been a real male-work project for TV physicians.
You can find a doc to say whatever you want to believe.
I like Dr. Jha.
Part of the problem is misinformation.
I hope when all this is over some of the entertainers who pass themselves off as journalists are hauled into court.
Jill
Angela Rasch (Jill M I)
Yeah, that's part of the
Yeah, that's part of the reason I try to only read the general research papers, and not watch/listen to the news.
I'll get a life when it's proven and substantiated to be better than what I'm currently experiencing.
Pick-A-Doc
Covid has been a real male-work project for TV physicians.
You can find a doc to say whatever you want to believe.
I like Dr. Jha.
Part of the problem is misinformation.
I hope when all this is over some of the entertainers who pass themselves off as journalists are hauled into court.
Jill
Angela Rasch (Jill M I)
Americans are their own worst enemy
What I mean, is that we have created more red tape than any other country to get any medical treatment to the user. The Food and Drug Administration requires that research and tests be conducted for a minimum of 10 years before it can be approved. That's what has been ingrained into our minds for years. The COVID-19 Vaccines were rushed through without the 10 year trial.
For myself, I got the J&J Vaccine 2 months ago and had NO Side Affects.
Miyata312
'Do or Do Not, There is no Try' - Yoda
Yoda was forgetful in his old age.
'Do or Do Not, There is no Try' - Yoda
Everyone has forgotten that (until myself just now) by the time Yoda and Obiwan try to keep Luke from going to rescue his friends. Yoda has forgotten.
Yoda and Obiwan have also forgotten the lesson of Anakin, whom they kept from his mother for a decade or so. Mother's death gave Anakin a huge shove toward the Dark Side. What might have happened had he stayed and his friends died? (Fortunately, they were adequate to the task of saving themselves.) Come to think of it, Luke had quite a bit of his father in him -- and not just lust for adventure. Luke's whining was a mild and better-done version of Anakin's.
"Try. Fail. And learn from your failures." -- Daphne Xu
-- Daphne Xu
The solution to this is simple.......
Lift the restrictions for those who have been vaccinated, but not for those who haven’t.
Want to see a baseball game? Show us your vaccination record. Want to go to a concert? Show us your vaccination record. Want to get on a plane? Show us your vaccination record. Want to eat in a restaurant? Show us your vaccination record.
There are two other solutions. Employers need to start requiring that employees must be vaccinated, and failure to get a vaccination makes you ineligible for unemployment insurance.
The second, and best long term solution is to require vaccination for all children attending public schools. After all, we require MMR vaccinations before going to school, it is a simple step to require Covid as well. It might take a few years, but we will force herd immunity on everyone - or they can home school their children.
Of course, the idiot in Florida is already trying to pre-empt that solution. I wonder what his excuse will be? That children are safe and don’t need to be immunized? Even if that were true, we immunize children for Rubella not for their safety, but because if pregnant women are exposed to Rubella, it results in birth defects. It has little to do with the children themselves, but rather it is to prevent others from being exposed - exactly like getting a Covid vaccination.
D. Eden
Dum Vivimus, Vivamus
The biggest problem there is
The biggest problem there is that we haven't completed any trials on those younger than 16. The odds are that they're perfectly safe, but I doubt there's a non-dictatorship type country that would suddenly allow the vaccination of groups not included in any of the tests.
Me? If someone asked if I would let them take some blood and follow my sole daughter for six months in exchange for vaccination, I'd probably say yes. Because I've already had the vaccine, as has my wife. If neither of us has had an issue, then our daughter is unlikely to see one either.
I'll get a life when it's proven and substantiated to be better than what I'm currently experiencing.
Actually........
Tests have been completed down to the age of 12, and there are ongoing tests on children even younger than that.
Early results appear to be that the vaccine is even more effective on children. The question now is what dosages need to be administered to younger children due to their smaller body sizes.
D. Eden
Dum Vivimus, Vivamus
I said they haven't completed
I said they haven't completed any trials. I didn't say they hadn't tested it. They're currently _in_ trials for at least one group down to 12. The trials have not completed as of yet, and the FDA (and maybe the AMA) will come down on anyone giving them _to_ those under the age of 16 before the data is collected and approved.
(Also, I think it's only Johnson & Johnson that's doing the underage trial... I don't recall for sure. I'd have to go back and double check the vaccine tracker. )
I'll get a life when it's proven and substantiated to be better than what I'm currently experiencing.
It's Pfizer...
News sources have reported that the FDA will clear the Pfizer vaccine for ages 12-16 next week.
Here's the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/03/world/covid-vaccine-...
Eric
True, but......
The problem with requiring the vaccine card to move freely about, revisits the requirements of travel papers that the Nazi's required. Do we want to do that?
Miyata312
'Do or Do Not, There is no Try' - Yoda
Or. . ..
Having to show a vaccine card might be equated to having to have a driver's license to operate a motor vehicle. Or, having to have a permit to build a large deck. Or, having to obtain a bond for any number of activities.
I'm not sure I agree with the suggestions to require/force people to do anything.
I think people should be able to make up their own minds. Like the almost fifty percent of workers in assisted living centers who have refused the vaccine -- in my state. They have a perfect right to kill off those innocent elderly people who trust them.
I think that the government should set a date . . . say July 1. If you get covid after July 1 and you didn't get your shots you should not be able to get health care at any hospital that accepts government funding. Of course, most anti-vaccine people think covid is just another flu, so that should be no big deal to them. The 578K who have died were going to die anyway, right?
For gosh sake!!!!!! My puppy had to get tags to prove he's had his shots and we're actually debating the validity of government demanding proof of sanity???????
Jill
Angela Rasch (Jill M I)
Having to show a vaccine card
Except operating a motor vehicle is a privilege. And freedom of movement is a human right.
I also ask 3 simple things:
1. how long the protection from vaccine lasts. How does the card show that protection is still active? How frequent should that be tested and updated?
2. You had covid, you have antibodies (which is equivalent to a vaccine, at least in short term). There is nothing on the card - your action?
3. There is fresh negative covid test present, should it be equivalent to the card?
Mmmm, how purrfect. So denying humans healthcare (another human right), even if it is not related to COVID. I smell lawsuits coming.
PS. I am not from US
PPS. Germany did it in a sane-ish way - they relaxed restrictions for those who had either vaccination, who had COVID and had antibodies after it or for those who had fresh negative test.
In answer to your questions........
Freedom of movement is still allowed even if we require proof of vaccination. You can move all you want within the already required restrictions - like having a driver’s license, or a passport, etc. We already require a photo ID to board a plane as well.
As for how long the vaccine lasts, well that is yet to be seen. Remember that Covid was brand new in 2019, and is not yet 2 years old. As that information is developed, it would need to be applied - as would any future booster shots. An electronic database would be more useful and easier to update. There are already several examples in use in Israel and even in New York State. They are accessed through a smart phone. There is also an application that is accessed through a bar code on a wrist band; several companies are using this for their employees.
Covid test info is also included on the applications, but it only counts for two weeks.
As for antibodies, I had Covid in March 2020 and participated in a study performed by New York State which showed I still had antibodies 11 months afterward. That is as far as the test went as I got vaccinated at that point. Having the antibodies indicated that I had some resistance to Covid, but it did not prove that I was immune. Plus, that kind of immunity doesn’t last forever either.
Your comment about not being from the US.......
Well, it’s always easy to critique someone from the outside. I assume you are German........
I won’t go on about what I feel about your government. Just keep in mind that there are no perfect solutions or governments.
D. Eden
Dum Vivimus, Vivamus
I am Russian (and currently
I am Russian (and currently live there). What happened here with vaccine and general management of COVID could be called 'glorious mismanagement' (and that would be generous) . As for Germany - a close friend is currently working there, so I do get some updates on the situation.
And yes, I have lived long enough to see that no solution is perfect. Just prefer to have them 'evidence-based', not 'political bias-based'.
My Suggestion Of Denying Healthcare Was Facetious
Unfortunately, many children would be involved who have no real choice in the matter.
Jill
Angela Rasch (Jill M I)
We already have a requirement
We already have a requirement that you have papers to travel. Birth Certificate, SSN, driver's license or state ID (now enhanced) that require fingerprints, and passports/visas..;
I'll get a life when it's proven and substantiated to be better than what I'm currently experiencing.
We already require a photo ID.......
To drive, to board a plane, to buy a drink........
How that compares to the Nazis is beyond me. Anyone who doesn’t want to show a photo ID is allowed not to - they simply can’t drive, or fly, or buy a drink, etc. Therein lies the choice we each make.
I think most Americans would be OK with this - and those who aren’t OK with it seem to think that it is OK to require a photo ID to vote. But not to prove vaccination? Tell me that makes sense.
D. Eden
Dum Vivimus, Vivamus
Nope
You don't need a vax certificate to travel anywhere. You don't need permission and papers to travel at all (which was one of the main purposes the NAZIs used the papers for, to limit travel). If you want to travel to DC or Seattle, Dallas or Vegas, just hop in your car and go.
What would be limited is certain methods of travel. Without a vax certificate you would likely not be able to travel by planes, trains, or buses. Heck, without a SAFE ID you won't be able to travel by most methods anyway.
“When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king. The palace becomes a circus.” - Turkish Proverb
Americans continually complain.
I remember getting the Polio Vaccine. Everyone was glad to do it. I didn't get Polio.
Now days there is so much complaining about the Vaccine that it is sickening. Trump and his minions interfered with real Science as to prevent the early eradication of Covid 19. It is a sad state of affairs we find ourselves in.
Gwen
um...what?
um...what?
Are you talking about Operation Warp Speed and how we didn't have to wait five years for the FDA to approve of a new vaccine?
charlie
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/missing-without-a-trace-cha...
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/832524
The List
The List of What Trump Did and Didn't Do is long and lingering and really not part of this discussion.
Jill
Angela Rasch (Jill M I)
Yes, sorry I mentioned Trump.
Yes, he should not be part of this discussion. Sorry I questioned his fast-tracking the vaccines.
charlie.
https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/missing-without-a-trace-cha...
https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/832524
I have a problem with that statement.
It is like blaming all Germans for the Nazis, when in fact the vast majority of Germans hated the Nazi party. Don't make a blanket condemnation for a group of people when it isn't the majority of people who feel that way. Although I do agree, we have more than our share of idiots. Here in California, we are making very good progress towards a high vaccine rate, but then we didn't vote to elect the orange idiot either time.
I'm having my 2nd jab today
I'm aware it won't necessarily stop me getting covid, especially some new variant, but it does reduce the likelihood of me ending up in hospital or dying from Covid or its complications. Anyone who doesn't seem to accept this as fact is either deluding themselves or has some other agenda that is either delusional, such as the various conspiracy theories, or nefarious.
Unless there are health reasons for not being vaccinated everyone has a duty to reduce the risks of this virus and being vaccinated is one of them, though I appreciate that in third-world countries that may be difficult. The richer countries need to help poorer ones to vaccinate as many as possible, because until we do, Covid will hang around like the spectre at the feast for many years.
The bad news is, the next pandemic will probably kill many more of us than Covid and will probably happen in the next ten years. Enjoy today, tomorrow may never come.
Angharad
When I Was A Child
We weren't asked if we wanted to be vaccinated against polio or smallpox. We just lined up and got the jab. I didn't know if anybody's parents complained.
In the 60s and 70s we had to have a yellow card as well as a passport . The card proved we had been vaccinated against various diseases and if you didn't have it you didn't get to go to a lot of places, mostly in the tropics, Asia, Pacific Islands, etc. You had a choice...get the jabs or don't go.
Nobody whinged about civil rights; it was a health matter.
I don't see a "Covid Passport" as being any different. It's for everybody's protection. Let's not get diverted into bullshit about Nazis and other rubbish. We owe it to each other to not infect people with a possibly fatal illness or get infected ourselves and put a strain on our health systems and those who have to work in them.
All apologies...
I'm sorry for making this so personal, but that's pretty much how some things need to be addressed. Hypotheticals and 'what ifs' make it at least easier to lapse into detachment?
My niece is resting comfortably today with her fiancé at his father's home. She is expecting her first child at nearly thirty-nine. This after suffering a few miscarriages. She is due in late September. She was raised by her single mom. Her father left her with a protracted estrangement that thankfully ended with a reconciliation helped by her step-mom and two step-sisters. And now she'll bless her families with the first grandchild for her mom and dad.
But the baby's arrival will be bittersweet. Her dad and her fiancé's grandmother both passed within weeks of each other; both suddenly succumbing to their second bouts with Covid without anyone able to say goodbye.
I am saddened for both families, but especially for my niece, who has endured more heartache in a lifetime than anyone should bear. I texted her today to remind her of how proud I am of her. Reflecting upon her losses, I am saddened that anyone who has not been touched by this should dismiss this horrific disease that continues to threaten lives around the world.
I fondly kid my niece; often referring to her as my 'Favorite.' (She actually is.)
Now I point to her and say 'Favorite and a Half.' Out of all my extended family, I like to think she would be one if not the only one to understand Andrea.
Thanks for your patience.
Love, Andrea Lena